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Emmys Cast Aways: Can Actors Like Robert Downey Jr. and Maya Rudolph Win If Theyre the Only

Along with nominees Idris Elba and Lily Gladstone, history favors winners from shows with more nominations

What do Robert Downey Jr., Idris Elba, Lily Gladstone and Maya Rudolph have in common?

These four stars are not only nominees at this year’s Primetime Emmy Awards but are also the sole representatives of their respective series: Downey (supporting actor in a limited series for “The Sympathizer”), Elba (lead drama actor for “Hijack”), Gladstone (supporting actress in a limited series for “Under the Bridge”) and Rudolph (lead comedy actress for “Loot”). While each of these talented actors has a shot at winning, history shows that it’s rare for someone to take home an Emmy when their show has no other nominations.

Over the past four decades, only six actors have won an Emmy as the sole nominee from their show: Louie Anderson (supporting comedy actor for “Baskets” in 2016), Richard Kiley (lead drama actor for “A Year in the Life” in 1987), Regina King (lead actress limited for “Seven Seconds” in 2018), Helen Mirren (lead actress limited for “Prime Suspect: The Scent of Darkness” in 1996), Tatiana Maslany (lead drama actress for “Orphan Black” in 2016) and Mark Ruffalo (lead actor limited for “I Know This Much Is True” in 2020).

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These wins were influenced by various factors, including the COVID pandemic, past Emmy triumphs, and the deep respect each actor commands within the industry. So, how might this year’s solo nominees fare?

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Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

Downey, fresh off his Oscar win for “Oppenheimer,” could make history if he wins. He would become the first man and only the third actor ever to win an Oscar and an Emmy in the same year. The first were Helen Hunt and Helen Mirren. Though many expected more nods for HBO/Max’s “The Sympathizer,” particularly in technical categories like makeup, Downey Jr. is heavily favored by pundits to garner his first win 23 years after his first nom for the comedy “Ally McBeal.” However, he’s up against formidable opponents, including Critics Choice winner Jonathan Bailey for “Fellow Travelers” and the late Treat Williams, who was posthumously nominated for “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans.” Interesting note about “Feud,” it’s also one of three series to receive acting noms in each eligible acting race. The others are FX’s “The Bear” and Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building.”

As we’ve seen, the Emmys tend to reward the same series in multiple categories, coming off big sweeps for “Succession,” “The Bear,” and “Beef” just in January, so a sole nominee can be difficult to foresee being successful. Interestingly, Downey’s Marvel peer, Ruffalo, was able to do such a thing in 2020 with his Emmy win. Nonetheless, the pandemic years for award shows can be hard to factor in to determine possible future outcomes.

Elba’s inclusion for “Hijack” was a surprise to many, marking his sixth career nod at the Emmys. In the Apple TV+ thriller, Elba plays a corporate business negotiator who uses his skills to resolve a hijacking crisis aboard a seven-hour flight. Despite his talent, the English-born actor faces tough competition from frontrunner Hiroyuki Sanada (“Shōgun”) and potential spoilers Gary Oldman (“Slow Horses”) and Dominic West (“The Crown”). If Elba manages to win, it would go down as one of the biggest upsets in Emmy history.

Rudolph is the most nominated actor at this year’s ceremony with four total — including for her work on “Big Mouth” (character voice-over) and “Saturday Night Live” (guest comedy actress and original music and lyrics). At the top of her list is her first lead comedy actress bid for “Loot.” This is the first-ever nom for the show, now in its second season. While Rudolph’s past Emmy success might help her, with five career wins, she’ll be up against recent winners like Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”) and Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear”), as well as another five-time winner Jean Smart (“Hacks”). Notably, a lead comedy actress winner has never been the sole nominee for her show in all of Emmy history. That could be tough to overcome.

Lily Gladstone, riding high after her first Oscar nomination for “Killers of the Flower Moon,” adds an Emmy nod to her growing list of accolades. In “Under the Bridge,” she plays a police officer working to solve a brutal murder in Hulu’s true crime drama. Gladstone, along with fellow nominee Kali Reis (“True Detective: Night Country”), has already made history as the first Indigenous woman nominated for acting at the Emmys. However, “Baby Reindeer,” with nominees Nava Mau (another historic nom as the third-ever transgender acting nominee) and frontrunner Jessica Gunning, has strong momentum, and the series is also the favorite for the best limited or anthology series trophy.

So, what are the chances that these four solo nominees will take home an Emmy for their acclaimed performances? While their odds may seem slim, particularly given the competition, Downey appears to have the best shot, followed closely by Rudolph. However, as we’ve seen in past shocking ceremonies, anything can happen, and sometimes the underdog gets their moment in the spotlight. Just ask Ewan McGregor about “Halston.”

Final Emmy voting takes place from Aug. 15 to Aug. 26.

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